Supporting Power & Renewables Investment Banks
ESAI delivers unbiased, transparent market insights into the power & renewables markets – with direct access to capacity, renewables, power, natural gas, environmental, and transmission experts. Our objective capacity & energy forecasts and analysis help you effectively manage your portfolio, identify new opportunities, and confidently advise clients.
Capacity, RECs, Carbon & Power Price Forecasts
ESAI Power delivers unbiased, informed fundamental power market forecasts and expert analysis to help you filter through your deal pipeline to balance risk and ROI and find the best opportunities. Our data is leveraged to assess portfolio valuations, understand project profitability, gain visibility into the interconnection queue, and inform new investments. ESAI is best known on buy-side M&A since our long-term Capacity, Power, Nat-Gas, RECs and Carbon forecasts are widely published to investors and generation owners.
Objective Analysis for Investors
ESAI provides objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. Our deep understanding of market rule changes and how regulations impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO. ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for Power, Capacity, RECs, NatGas & Carbon.
ESAI supports investment bankers to conduct M&A valuation market forecasts and reports by RTO or, at the plant level, conduct risk assessments on potential deals. ESAI is known for publishing ‘the unvarnished truth’ in our long-term forecasts. Our Generation Asset Monitor provides granular plant-by-plant views of generation projects under development and plants at-risk of retirement.
Power and Renewables Investment Banks leverage ESAI’s Power market insights to:
- Inform new investment decisions.
- Validate Asset Valuations, Revenue & Gross Margin Projections.
- Stay current on environmental regulations and their impact on long-term portfolio revenues.
- Assess how market rule changes will impact Capacity, Power, Carbon & REC prices over time.
- Conduct effective energy deal analysis.
- Test internal models compared to ESAI’s industry-standard Capacity, Power, RECs and Carbon price forecast benchmarks.
Transactable Energy Asset Analysis
Investment bankers need accurate information to make informed decisions. ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known & expected changes in market rules and operating conditions. Our scenario & sensitivities analysis allow investors to dig into our base case market assumptions to understand on a granular level how a potential retirement or market rule change may relate to future price changes and relative shifts in market conditions.
ESAI’s Power’s Capacity, RECs, NatGas & Carbon market reports keep investment bankers informed of market developments such as renewable generator addition, upcoming retirements, interconnection challenges, changes in load growth projections, and how market rules & regulatory changes will impact long-term prices.
With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior experts, investment bankers have a full suite of tools to support new energy asset valuation & management of potential opportunities.
Products & Services
Energy & Emissions Markets
ESAI offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York, and New England energy markets.
Our power, natural gas, and emissions market forecasts includes zonal LMP forecasting developed using dispatch modeling based on current and projected transmission topology and detailed natural gas pricing projections at specific regional gas delivery points.
In Energy WatchTM, ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in the Northeast power pools.
Emissions WatchTM closely follows carbon market developments at the federal, regional and state levels that impact the emissions markets. At the federal level, ESAI Power reports on changes to existing regulations (i.e., Mercury & Air Toxics, NAAQS and CSAPR Groups 2 & 3 market rules) as well as analyzing the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations. In addition, ESAI provides price projections for SO2 and NOx (annual and seasonal) allowances.
At the regional level, ESAI Power provides coverage of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Specifically, a 10-year allowance price forecast and CO2 emissions projections.
Capacity & Renewables Markets
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for generation assets. ESAI provides quarterly analysis and insights and capacity market forecasts for every capacity area across ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, & MISO.
Forecast and assess investment opportunities and capitalize on changing supply and demand conditions by tracking key market indicators, auction rule changes, and regulatory updates. ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) database is published monthly and provides updates on new generation, retirements and those power assets at risk of retirement.
Capacity coverage includes updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation, retirements, shifts in regional transmission impacting capacity areas, and evolving market rules.
Renewables coverage includes solar, onshore & offshore wind, hydro, and storage. For each RTO, ESAI details the regulatory and market factors impacting supply and demand for Class I RECs and projects the supply and demand balance of RECs through 2032. ESAI provides a Class I REC price forecast for the ISO-NE and PJM footprints and closely monitors renewable energy supply and demand developments in NYISO.
ESAI’s market experts are always available to clients’ providing insights into our market data and reports.
Market Forecasts for Infrastructure Assets
ESAI Power’s team of experts has vast experience advising investment bankers on custom forecasts of a portfolio of infrastructure power assets. Portfolio market forecasts could include:
- Asset/portfolio market forecasts and gross margin projections.
- Quarterly updates on base case market assumptions
- Regulatory and Environmental market rule updates.
- Plant specific, locational base case forecasts for each hub including delivered natural gas prices.
- Nodal LMPs at each relevant hub, zone and node (on-peak, off-peak, and 7X24)
- Realized power prices, Unit output and Capacity Factor, Fuel consumption & costs, Environmental allowance costs, VOM, Energy gross margin, Capacity Prices & Revenues.
Unbiased Partner for Investment Banks
ESAI Power’s market data and insights are used by lenders to support their most critical investment decisions. ESAI is known on the buy-side because we publish to a large subscriber base of market participants – we always deliver unbiased, objective capacity & energy forecasts to subscribers. To maintain integrity, we don’t publish hockey stick revenue forecasts to appease seller’s requests.
Market forecasts, asset valuations & revenue projections are backed by transparent assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in spreadsheet form for ease of use. Market conditions constantly change & that means risk and upside are always on the horizon for lenders.
ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, and market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes.
Validate Asset Valuation Projections
Power sector Investment Bankers leverage ESAI’s analytics to support asset valuations, revenue & gross margin projections, debt financing, and refinancing of power and renewable energy assets.
Make informed decisions and optimize revenues when evaluating new deals. ESAI assesses RECs, Capacity and merchant wholesale prices as well as key regulations, the interconnection queue, and conducts retirements analysis, to forecast market prices over the next decade. With a clear perspective on projected market developments, potential opportunities can be evaluated based upon market forecasts in light of an understanding of the market & regulatory risks.
ESAI’s team will keep you informed of the policy developments at the state, regional and federal level that impact asset valuations and will update you on early developments in the various RTO committees.
Publications
Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO, with Resource Adequacy coverage in CAISO.
Energy WatchTM is available as a monthly or quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs.
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