ESAI’s latest Emissions Watch briefing provides an update on the ozone season CSAPR programs. With President-elect Trump winning the November 5 presidential election, EPA will no longer defend the 2023 Good Neighbor Plan (GNP) in court once he takes office which means that the rule will not be implemented.
This rule established a new Group 3 program with lower budgets than the previous ozone season CSAPR programs. States that had compliance obligations under the GNP have re-joined the ozone season CSAPR programs (Group 2 or Expanded Group 2) for which they had been a member previously.
While the EPA does have a statutory obligation under the Clean Air Act to propose a new rule, if a new rule is finalized under the new Trump administration, it will almost certainly be less stringent than the 2023 GNP.
ESAI’s Emissions Watch report goes into further detail on 2024 ozone season NOx emissions, the emissions limit, and the total available allowance holdings for both the Group 2 and Expanded Group 2 programs. Our analysis includes a detailed update on supply of allowances and how that compares to the demand for allowances and thus the impact on emissions and energy prices moving forward.
To learn more, visit our Emissions Watch page to learn more and to become a client.
About Us
ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. To become a client, click here.
Learn About Emissions
ESAI Power closely follows carbon market developments at the federal, regional and state levels that impact the Emissions markets. At the federal level, ESAI Power reports on changes to existing regulations (i.e., Mercury & Air Toxics and CSAPR Rules) as well as analyzing the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations. In addition, ESAI provides price projections for SO2 and NOx (annual and seasonal) allowances.
Learn About Emissions Watch
Emissions WatchTM is our quarterly publication contains ESAI Power’s outlooks and views on the emissions markets. ESAI provides regular updates and analysis on developments in the SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions markets as well as price forecasts for state and regional markets. In addition, regular updates are provided on the RGGI program as well as other state-specific emissions programs. At the federal level, ESAI Power reports on changes to existing regulations (e.g., Mercury & Air Toxics and CSAPR Rules) and analyzes the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations. In addition, ESAI provides price projections for SO2 and NOx (annual and seasonal) allowances.
