In electricity markets, the demand side is called the Load. Load is simply the sum of all demands for electricity in a market at any given time.
ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.
Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.
Temperatures across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England are expected to heat up and be the primary driver for congestion in July. Summer heat and potential re-distribution of the load profile due to individuals returning to work will keep eyes focused on demand fluctuations through the month. ESAI Power predicts very minimal generator or nuclear reactor outages in July, ultimately supporting the emphasis on demand levels.
Planned generator maintenance across the Northeast region will wind down during May and will largely be completed by the end of the month. Outage-driven congestion will shift to load-driven congestion as higher daytime temperatures increase electricity demand in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England. All three Northeast ISOs have scheduled significant transmission work throughout May. In New England, longer-term transmission outages will increase congestion in NEMA, RI, and SEMA.
In this report, we cover load developments and their impact on wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM, and ISO-New England. In most areas of New York, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. PJM’s 2021 Load Report projects energy demand for 2021 to be 1.2 percent lower than in the 2020 Load Report. In New England, higher projected energy efficiency and distributed solar growth are expected to offset increases in demand from electric vehicles and space heating.
Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.
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ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.