Energy Watch

ESAI Power publishes Energy WatchTM to help investors, generation owners, developers, utilities, regulators, and energy buyers understand the micro/macro trends impacting energy prices. ESAI produces 10-year power price forecasts for major price hubs and zones within the three Northeast power markets using security-constrained dispatch modeling.

We deliver an ongoing analysis of both North American and Northeast regional natural gas markets. Gas price forecasts and market commentary are included in the Energy WatchTM quarterly and monthly publications. ESAI Power provides basis forecasts for most Northeast-delivered gas pricing points, including Tetco M3, Transco Zone 6 New York, and Algonquin City Gate. We track pipeline and gas infrastructure projects and analyze changes in pipeline system constraints that can impact regional basis spreads.

Posts

Power Forwards in PJM Trend Higher, RGGI CO2 Allowances Increase | Energy Watch Blog

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June has brought about high temperatures and strong electricity demand to the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE power markets with elevated prices. Northeast power futures reacted quickly and are trading significantly higher. Despite this rally in prices, ESAI’s gas outlook is stable and believes the futures are overvalued. In this blog, we’ll provide a brief update on each of the ISO’s and an update on the RGGI Quarterly Auction (Auction 52).

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PJM Power Prices Likely To Heat Up This Summer | Energy Watch Blog

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ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.

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Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q1 2021

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In this report, we cover load developments and their impact on wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM, and ISO-New England. In most areas of New York, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. PJM’s 2021 Load Report projects energy demand for 2021 to be 1.2 percent lower than in the 2020 Load Report. In New England, higher projected energy efficiency and distributed solar growth are expected to offset increases in demand from electric vehicles and space heating.

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Energy Demand in NYISO, PJM, & ISO-New England and How They Impact Wholesale Electricity Prices | Energy Watch Blog

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Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.

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Northeast Energy Watch Monthly™ Report for March, 2021 | Energy Watch Blog

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This monthly issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Watch MonthlyTM provides a summary of the February prices surging in the Northeast Electricity prices.  As Spring approaches, milder weather will moderate electricity demand, gas prices and power prices across the Northeast.

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Feb Power Prices Surged, March Equinox Moderates Demand & RGGI Auction No. 51 update

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In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO.  Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.

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Macro Trends in Renewable Energy | Energy Watch Blog

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In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.

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Northeast Energy Watch Monthly™ Report for April 2020

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This monthly issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Watch MonthlyTM follows our recent quarterly edition of Energy Watch which provided estimates of potential demand impacts from COVID-19 restrictions. This issue, also made available to all of our quarterly Energy Watch recipients, provides several scenarios bracketing the range of outcomes for power and gas supply, demand and pricing. Feel free to contact ESAI Power for more descriptions of the analyses presented and the underlying assumptions.

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