Emissions Watch Graphic

Emissions WatchTM – This quarterly publication contains ESAI Power’s outlooks and views on the emissions markets. ESAI provides regular updates and analyses on developments in the SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions markets, as well as price forecasts for state and regional markets. In addition, regular updates are provided on the RGGI program and other state-specific emissions programs.

ESAI Power closely follows carbon market developments at the federal, regional, and state levels that impact the emissions markets. At the federal level, ESAI Power reports on changes to existing regulations (e.g., Mercury & Air Toxics and CSAPR Rules) and analyzes the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations. In addition, ESAI provides price projections for SO2 and NOx (annual and seasonal) allowances.

Posts

Proposed EPA Rule Leads to Quadrupling Group 3 Ozone Season CSAPR NOx Prices | Emissions Watch Blog

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The EPA issued a proposed rule in February 2022 that, if finalized, will implement significant programmatic changes, and establish lower emissions limits to the existing Group 3 Ozone Season Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) beginning in the 2023 ozone season. Following the issuance of this proposed rule, Group 3 CSAPR NOx allowance prices have quadrupled from approximately $6,500/ton in February to $28,500/ton (June 6).

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RGGI Auction 56 Update: RGGI Auction Clears At $13.90 | Emissions Watch Blog

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The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 56) was held on June 1, 2022. The clearing price was $13.90/ton, three percent higher than the clearing price of $13.50/ton on March 9, 2022 (see Figure 1). Although the clearing price was only slightly higher than the most recent auction, the $13.90/ton price marks the highest clearing price since the start of the program. Notably, the clearing price fell just short of the 2022 Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) trigger price.

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EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

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Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.

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RGGI Auction 54 Update | Emissions Watch Blog

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The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 54) was held on December 1, 2021. The clearing price was $13.00/ton, nearly 40 percent higher than the clearing price of $9.30/ton on September 8, 2021 (see Figure 1). For the first time since September 2015, the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) was triggered which is a mechanism of the RGGI program that was implemented to provide additional allowances when auction prices exceed an established price ceiling.

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RGGI Update on CO2 Data, Pennsylvania, North Carolina & Massachusetts CO2 Auction | Emissions Watch Blog

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In this Emissions Watch blog, we provide several updates pertaining to the RGGI program, including a review of the recently released Q2 2021 CO2 emissions data for states in the RGGI footprint. Compared to the same quarter last year, emissions were 17 percent higher. ESAI also provides an updated RGGI price forecast, which remains below current OTC prices in the longer-term. In Pennsylvania, the Environmental Quality Board (EQB) approved final regulations to join RGGI last month, but opposition to the state joining the program persists.

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Pennsylvania RGGI CO2 Limits, Illinois Energy Bill, and CSAPR Update | Emissions Watch Blog

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In this Emissions Watch blog, we provide updates on the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an energy bill introduced in Illinois, the Ozone Season Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), and modifications to the federal Social Cost of Carbon. RGGI Update: Relative to Q1 2020, Q1 2021 emissions in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) footprint were 29 percent higher (excluding new members NJ and VA).

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Net Zero by 2050 Emissions Reduction Mandates in New England | Emissions Watch Blog

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In today’s blog, we’re providing an excerpt from a recent preview to our next Emissions WatchTM that discusses two new Net Zero by 2050 emissions reduction mandates that were recently signed into law in New England. In Massachusetts, Governor Charlie Baker signed An Act Creating a Next Generation Roadmap for the Massachusetts Climate Policy. Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee signed a Landmark Act on Climate into law on April 10, 2021. Like the Massachusetts Act, it establishes specific emissions reduction mandates.

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RGGI Update | Emissions Watch Blog

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