Emissions refer to the release of pollutants, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx), into the atmosphere as a result of electricity generation and other energy-related activities.
ESAI Power closely follows carbon market developments at the federal, regional, and state levels that impact the emissions markets. At the federal level, ESAI Power reports on changes to existing regulations (e.g., Mercury & Air Toxics and CSAPR Rules) and analyzes the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations. In addition, ESAI provides price projections for SO2 and NOx (annual and seasonal) allowances.
At the regional level, ESAI Power provides coverage of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)—specifically, a 10-year allowance price forecast and CO2 emissions projections through 2031. ESAI Power also monitors changes to the RGGI program stemming from periodic scheduled program reviews and full coverage of CSAPR. In the past, changes have included downward revisions to the annual cap and the establishment of the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) and Emissions Containment Reserve (ECR) that are intended to either increase or decrease the number of allowances in circulation depending on whether allowance prices either exceed or fall below-established price levels.
At the state level, ESAI provides coverage on state-specific initiatives such as the Massachusetts CO2Cap regulation.
Emissions Watch is our quarterly report that contains ESAI Power’s outlooks and views on the emissions markets. ESAI provides regular updates and analysis on developments in the RGGI, SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions markets and price forecasts for state and regional markets.
ESAI Power’s latest Emissions Watch update, issued on May 16, 2024, provided our customers with our analysis of the four final rules issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2024, including the Greenhouse Gas Rule (GHG), the Updated Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELGs), the Updated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) and the Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR) Rule.
Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection’s footprint this month, according to the grid operator’s generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power’s Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by “end of life” plant issues.