Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) is measuring the contribution of variable and supply-limited resources to grid reliability, which is becoming increasingly important as such resources expand their role in the electricity grid. Several large system operators have recently adopted Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) as an approach to measuring these contributions. ELCC measures a resource’s contribution to reliability based on the incremental quantity of load that can be satisfied by adding the resource to the grid. ELCC represents an important advance in calculating resource adequacy, as it better reflects the realities of how supply resources contribute to system reliability compared to previous methods.
Additional Information: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/elcc-little-known-electric-utility-metric-make-break-us-alvarez/.
ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch update includes our view on the impact of PJM’s 2025 Load forecast on Energy Prices and Capacity Prices moving forward in PJM, including detailed analysis of CAGRs for peak load and net energy in AEP, Dominion, PPL, COMED and other PJM RTO zones.
PJM recently updated its Capacity Auction schedule for the 2026/27 Base Residual Auction. The auction was set to begin in early December 2024 but has now been delayed and is scheduled to take place in early July 2024. PJM is now scheduled to open the offer window for the 2026/27 BRA on July 9th, 2025 for market participants. The Capacity auction window will close on July 16th, and PJM plans to post the auction results on July 22nd.
Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that after receiving two key Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decisions, the PJM Interconnection plans to hold its next capacity auction in June. Our Scott Niemann, Managing Director & Principal, said the FERC-approved changes will likely put upward pressure on capacity prices in most parts of PJM. Driven by pending power plant retirements, prices in PJM’s Southwest MAAC zone could break higher than the overall regional transmission organization.
ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24. Our PJM analysis this quarter includes ESAI’s forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24 and reflects upon MOPR, MSOC, ELCC and VRR Curves.
In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC’s revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC’s failure to reach a majority decision on PJM’s proposed MOPR revisions.
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ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.