Congestion Watch Graphic

Congestion Watch is currently retired as an ESAI Power publication. It analyzed transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and examined the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. The report provided month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast. The report provided expert insights into key drivers for congestion pricing, such as transmission and generation outages, system load, and changes to fuel prices.

Posts

Persistent Congestion on NYISO’s Central East Interface: The End is in Sight | Congestion Watch Blog

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The Central East Interface is one of New York’s most congested corridors, enabling Upstate generation to serve the robust load levels Downstate. Congestion on the interface and the Zone F/Zone E basis spread has increased significantly in the past 1.5 years as a result of construction on the Central East Energy Connect, one of the two projects under the AC Transmission Upgrades PPTN. In addition to construction-associated outages, higher delivered gas prices in eastern New York have contributed to increased congestion.

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NYISO Central East Congestion to Moderate This Summer | Congestion Watch Blog

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Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

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Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

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A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

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Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

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The start of winter signals the end of generator maintenance season and a shift away from supply-stack driven congestion towards load and transmission driven congestion. Certain load pocket zones across the Northeast are susceptible to import constraints leading to elevated congestion risk and higher power prices. ESAI expects high natural gas prices to play a key role in December congestion patterns.

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September Congestion update PJM NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.

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Transmission Outages in ISO-NE Will Elevate Congestion Potential in NEMA, SEMA & CT | Congestion Watch Blog

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Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.

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Elevated Load Levels Culprit for Congestion in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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Temperatures across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England are expected to heat up and be the primary driver for congestion in July. Summer heat and potential re-distribution of the load profile due to individuals returning to work will keep eyes focused on demand fluctuations through the month. ESAI Power predicts very minimal generator or nuclear reactor outages in July, ultimately supporting the emphasis on demand levels.

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Higher Loads and Hotter Temps Drive Increased Electricity Demand in ISO New England, PJM & NYISO | Congestion Watch Blog

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Electricity demand will increase in June as temperatures rise and higher loads become the main driver for ISO New England, PJM and NYISO. Generator maintenance will no longer be a major factor in June. The power generation maintenance season will largely be completed by the end of May, and outage levels will be minimal throughout the summer. Significant transmission work continues in ISO New England, PJM and NYISO.

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Increased Electricity Demand in PJM, NYISO & ISO-New England | Congestion Watch Blog

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Planned generator maintenance across the Northeast region will wind down during May and will largely be completed by the end of the month. Outage-driven congestion will shift to load-driven congestion as higher daytime temperatures increase electricity demand in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England. All three Northeast ISOs have scheduled significant transmission work throughout May. In New England, longer-term transmission outages will increase congestion in NEMA, RI, and SEMA.

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