Capacity Watch GraphicCapacity WatchTM – Provides analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. Coverage includes:

  • An evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO via our Generation Asset Monitor monthly updates.
  • Pre & post Capacity auction briefings on PJM BRAs, ISO-NE FCAs, MISO PRAs with ongoing, in-depth NYISO Capacity market analysis.
  • Up-to-date 10-year Capacity Price forecast.

Subscribers can also access ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor, which provides a detailed evaluation of the outlook for the construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, and MISO.

Posts

How Low Can PJM Capacity Prices Go? | Capacity Watch Blog

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Our Q2 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO Capacity prices. In this blog, we will highlight a portion of the analysis in the PJM section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. PJM’s recent release of the 2022/23 Base Residual Auction clearing prices surprised many market participants with prices well below expectations. Prices in each LDA cleared significantly lower than historical auctions, and in particular, the 2021/22 BRA.

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Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

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Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

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PJM BRA 2022/23, ISO-NE FCA 16 Forecast and NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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Our Q1 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England and NYISO Capacity prices. For ISO New England, we review the results for the Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) recently conducted by ISO New England. In PJM, parameters have been released for the 2022/23 BRA, scheduled for May 2021. With a lower forecasted peak load, auction clearing prices are expected to decline in all PJM locations. In New York, the 2021 Summer Capability Period will begin in May.

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Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q1 2021

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Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

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ESAI Power LLC Announces Publication of 3rd Quarter of 2019 Capacity Watch™

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This issue of Capacity WatchTM examines the development of the offshore wind industry in the Northeast and its potential impact on capacity markets.  The New York section discusses the upcoming winter strip outlook and the impacts of the PJM Transmission Owners filing to increase PJM export tariffs for exports to New York.  The PJM section examines the outlook for the next BRA and implications for the cancellation of the BRA that was scheduled for August and in New England, a significant drop in the Installed Capacity Requirement (1,260 MW) has shifted the outlook for FCA clearing prices lower.  Please see the accompanying excerpt for review.

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ESAI Power Announces Publication Capacity Watch™ 2018 Q2 | Capacity Watch Blog

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This issue provides a detailed overview of expectations for the upcoming BRA for 2021/22. RTO and MAAC prices are expected to clear at $86.69/MW-day with EMAAC clearing at $150.69/MW-day and ComEd at $175. For New England, a detailed breakdown of the FCA12 results are provided as well as a discussion of the potential for fuel-based reliability payments for Mystic 8 and 9. Finally in New York, the final 2018 Gold Book load forecasts have been issued and are incorporated into the ESAI outlook.  Please see the accompanying excerpt for review.

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