Capacity WatchTM – Provides analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. Coverage includes:
Subscribers can also access ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor, which provides a detailed evaluation of the outlook for the construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, and MISO.
Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.
Our Q1 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England and NYISO Capacity prices. For ISO New England, we review the results for the Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) recently conducted by ISO New England. In PJM, parameters have been released for the 2022/23 BRA, scheduled for May 2021. With a lower forecasted peak load, auction clearing prices are expected to decline in all PJM locations. In New York, the 2021 Summer Capability Period will begin in May.
Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.
This issue of Capacity WatchTM examines the development of the offshore wind industry in the Northeast and its potential impact on capacity markets. The New York section discusses the upcoming winter strip outlook and the impacts of the PJM Transmission Owners filing to increase PJM export tariffs for exports to New York. The PJM section examines the outlook for the next BRA and implications for the cancellation of the BRA that was scheduled for August and in New England, a significant drop in the Installed Capacity Requirement (1,260 MW) has shifted the outlook for FCA clearing prices lower. Please see the accompanying excerpt for review.
This issue provides a detailed overview of expectations for the upcoming BRA for 2021/22. RTO and MAAC prices are expected to clear at $86.69/MW-day with EMAAC clearing at $150.69/MW-day and ComEd at $175. For New England, a detailed breakdown of the FCA12 results are provided as well as a discussion of the potential for fuel-based reliability payments for Mystic 8 and 9. Finally in New York, the final 2018 Gold Book load forecasts have been issued and are incorporated into the ESAI outlook. Please see the accompanying excerpt for review.
ESAI Power LLC is pleased to announce the publication of our 1st quarter of 2018 Capacity Watch™ publication. The issue presents an overview of the penalties for delays or cancellations in delivery of new generation and the implications for capacity markets. The New England section discusses the CASPR capacity substitution rule and its potential impact on prices.