Capacity Watch GraphicCapacity WatchTM – Provides analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. Coverage includes:

  • An evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO via our Generation Asset Monitor monthly updates.
  • Pre & post Capacity auction briefings on PJM BRAs, ISO-NE FCAs, MISO PRAs with ongoing, in-depth NYISO Capacity market analysis.
  • Up-to-date 10-year Capacity Price forecast.

Subscribers can also access ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor, which provides a detailed evaluation of the outlook for the construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, and MISO.

Posts

MISO Capacity Market Update | Capacity Watch Blog

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MISO released its seasonal preliminary PRA report yesterday, January 15, 2025. This update includes preliminary PRA Data posting for Summer 2025, Fall 2025, Winter 2025/26 and Spring 2026.  The data includes PRMR, LCR, and Total Installed Capacity (ICAP). ESAI Power’s latest MISO Capacity report and forecast include updates on the Summer Peak forecast for 2025, how data center demand is impacting prices, details on scheduled and at-risk retirements, implementation of RBDC, and what market drivers will impact both the 2025/26 PRA and price outcomes over the next 10 years.

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MISO Interconnection Queue Update I Generation Asset Monitor Blog

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This update provides a high-level overview of our recently published MISO Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) report and database for November, 2024.  The MISO GAM tracks the Interconnection queue in MISO for additions, forecasts plant retirements and plants deemed at risk of retirement, and provides an outlook for the timeline of renewable generation projects in MISO.

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NYISO Capacity Price Forecast Winter 2024-25 | Capacity Watch Blog

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The NYISO Winter Strip Auction window opened today, starting a series of critical events in the NYISO Winter Capability Period for 2024/25. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the state of New York’s energy needs, ensuring a reliable power supply during the colder months. This blog post will delve into some details of the NYISO Installed Capacity Market for the Winter 2024/25 season, shedding light on auction schedules, clearing price volatility, and notable changes compared to the previous winter.

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MISO PRA Scheduled to Start March 26th | Capacity Watch Blog

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ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our new Capacity coverage of MISO. ESAI also maintains a MISO Energy Asset Database (Delivered to subscribers in excel) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement. 

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PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

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ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.

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ISO-NE FCA18 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze ISO-NE FCA18, Forward Capacity Auction. ESAI’s coverage includes auction parameters, qualified capacity, and expected auction dynamics. These are all detailed in our Capacity Watch report.

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Top ESAI Power Blog Posts for 2023

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It has been a banner year for news in the wholesale power space and our top five blog posts reflect that with heavy concentration of capacity and renewable energy news in NYISO, MISO and the PJM Interconnection.

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ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

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Generation owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the ISO-New England Capacity Market.  As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.” ESAI is now offering the opportunity to request our Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecasts for ISO New England’s Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions.

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PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

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Power Generator owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the PJM, MISO, ISO-NE and NYISO Capacity Markets. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March, 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.”

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NYISO Capacity Prices Volatile Heading into Winter 2023-24 | Capacity Watch Blog

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As the days grow shorter and temperatures drop, the New York State energy market gears up for another winter season. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the state’s energy needs, ensuring a reliable power supply during the colder months. This blog post will delve into the critical details of the NYISO Installed Capacity Market for the Winter 2023/24 season, shedding light on auction schedules, clearing price volatility, and notable changes compared to the previous winter.

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