Our Benchmark Energy Research (BER) service provides fundamental-based outlooks for power market investors, generation owners, and energy traders to make better investment decisions. Subscribers receive market updates on important market events such as Capacity Auctions and important new renewables legislations, plus complete PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England long-term price forecasts for Capacity, Energy, Emissions, Renewable Energy, Transmission, and RECs. MISO coverage is focused on Capacity only.
Investors leverage ESAI Power’s market insights to:
- Make critical investment decisions.
- Conduct effective energy asset revenue & margin analysis.
- Validate Asset Valuation Models and Projections.
- Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasting.
- Understand and manage market and regulatory risks.
- Test analytical models and compare them to industry-standard Capacity, Carbon, RECs, Energy & NatGas price forecast benchmarks.
Our Benchmark Energy Research service includes access to the following research services with ongoing coverage of the markets, access to the Generation Asset Monitor, and ad-hoc access to our team of market experts.
Reports
Capacity Watch Analysis of capacity markets and capacity policy issues in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO regions. This report includes ESAI’s outlook for regional 10-year capacity prices as well as in-depth analysis of current market issues that affect price outcomes. Our coverage includes pre-auction forecasts, and updated post-auction forecasts along with what the auction results will mean for clearing prices moving forward over the next 10-years. The impacts on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI provides detailed assumptions for generation projects in the queue coming online over time, upcoming retirements, and power plants at-risk of retirement. Subscribers also gain access to ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor.
Energy Watch QuarterlyTM is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing over a 10-years for both power & natural gas. Includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM, and forecasts of fuel inputs. The dynamics of market & policy changes are analyzed and impacts on energy prices are assessed. These impacts are placed in the context of high-level benchmark economics of theoretical plants in specific locations. Report provides annual 7×24 data resolution.
Emissions WatchTM is a quarterly report contains our outlooks and views on the emissions markets ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM. ESAI provides regular updates and analysis on developments in the SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions markets as well as price forecasts for state and regional markets. In addition, regular updates are provided on the RGGI program as well as other state-specific emissions programs.
Renewables WatchTM provides a quarterly update on significant policies (state and federal) facing the PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE renewable energy markets. In addition, inputs to ESAI’s Class I REC supply and demand models are updated quarterly to provide timely updates to Class I REC forecasts. ESAI also covers federal issues that impact renewable policy and development in the Northeast.
Transmission WatchTM provides an in-depth look at transmission investment and development. Regional reliability issues, economic congestion relief and policy drivers in the context of RTO planning processes. Regulatory and policy initiatives as well as updates on significant projects. We provide detailed quarterly reports that deliver insights into Transmission concerns, financing of projects, key policy changes, merchant vs. utility build-outs. Transmission specific data includes major transmission projects under consideration in North America.
Our Generation Asset Monitor provides an evaluation of the outlook for construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO. Each project is assigned a “probability of completion factor in % terms” that is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions and retirements in each pool. The database is published quarterly and available in a basic format that provides a summary overview, or in a fully detailed format to include project by project level details such as project status, queue numbers, project name, developer permit status, financing status, PPA status, etc.
Research Methodology
Energy Asset investment and power trading decisions should always be based upon fundamentally sound inputs and detailed project outlooks. While the demand side of the equation for energy asset valuations and energy pricing is relatively straightforward, getting the supply side data correct relies upon a detailed and accurate understanding of the construction of generation projects, the likelihood of project completion, and energy asset retirements and those at-risk of retirement. Supply forecasts also require a broad understanding of how transmission, congestion, emissions, and renewable energy mandates impact capacity and energy price outcomes.
Independent, Unbiased Analysis
For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors & generation owners with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy, emissions, renewables, transmission & RECs. Our forecasts are published to our client base of generators, investors, regulators, and utilities – and must always remain unbiased. We’re committed to covering these markets consistently in our price forecasts. ESAI is well known for publishing “the un-varnished truth” in our forward curve forecasts.
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