PJM Interconnection (PJM)

PJM Interconnection LLC (PJM) is a regional transmission organization (RTO) serving all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Started in 1927, this energy pool was renamed the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) in 1956. PJM is headquartered in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.

ESAI’s PJM Coverage includes Capacity, RECs, Power, Natural Gas, Carbon, Transmission and Congestion markets

ESAI provides fundamental-based outlooks for generation owners, investors, developers, and energy traders. Subscribers receive market updates on important market events including Capacity auctions, RGGI auctions, new Emissions and Renewables legislations, plus complete PJM long-term price forecasts for Power, NatGas, Capacity, RECs, and Emissions prices.

ESAI Power’s market insights enable subscribers to:

Make critical investment and trading decisions.
Conduct effective energy asset revenue and gross margin analysis.
Validate Asset valuation models and projections.
Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasts.
Understand and manage market and regulatory risks.
Test analytical models.
Compare industry standard Capacity, Carbon, RECs, Energy & NatGas price forecast benchmarks.

In addition to PJM, ESAI Power monitors ISO-NE, NYISO and MISO.

Request our PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Request a report detailing ESAI Power’s Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecast for PJM’s Base Residual Auctions (BRA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions. This report compares ESAI’s pre-auction forecast with actual BRA results across defined locational deliverability areas (LDA) for the past seven PJM Base Residual Auctions.

ESAI Power continuously monitors and conducts analyses the capacity markets in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO. Capacity market projections incorporate detailed assessments of market rule changes, market drivers including load projections, demand curve parameters, new capacity and retirements, and transmission constraints that impact locational delivery and pricing.

PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Read Our PJM Blog Posts

Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

July 20, 2021

Our Q2 issue of Energy WatchTM came out this week. In our Q2 Energy WatchTM report ESAI Power provides an update on the Seasonal NOx regulations under the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the expected impact on allowance prices, Northeast power plant emissions, and wholesale power prices. For each ISO, ESAI Power provides an overview of projected net energy revenue expectations for key generation technologies.

How Low Can PJM Capacity Prices Go? | Capacity Watch Blog

July 15, 2021

Our Q2 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO Capacity prices. In this blog, we will highlight a portion of the analysis in the PJM section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. PJM's recent release of the 2022/23 Base Residual Auction clearing prices surprised many market participants with prices well below expectations. Prices in each LDA cleared significantly lower than historical auctions, and in particular, the 2021/22 BRA.

Transmission Outages in ISO-NE Will Elevate Congestion Potential in NEMA, SEMA & CT | Congestion Watch Blog

July 14, 2021

Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

July 8, 2021

Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

Power Forwards in PJM Trend Higher, RGGI CO2 Allowances Increase | Energy Watch Blog

June 21, 2021

June has brought about high temperatures and strong electricity demand to the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE power markets with elevated prices. Northeast power futures reacted quickly and are trading significantly higher. Despite this rally in prices, ESAI's gas outlook is stable and believes the futures are overvalued. In this blog, we’ll provide a brief update on each of the ISO’s and an update on the RGGI Quarterly Auction (Auction 52).

Elevated Load Levels Culprit for Congestion in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

June 16, 2021

Temperatures across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England are expected to heat up and be the primary driver for congestion in July. Summer heat and potential re-distribution of the load profile due to individuals returning to work will keep eyes focused on demand fluctuations through the month. ESAI Power predicts very minimal generator or nuclear reactor outages in July, ultimately supporting the emphasis on demand levels.

PJM Power Prices Likely To Heat Up This Summer | Energy Watch Blog

May 20, 2021

ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.

Higher Loads and Hotter Temps Drive Increased Electricity Demand in ISO New England, PJM & NYISO | Congestion Watch Blog

May 10, 2021

Electricity demand will increase in June as temperatures rise and higher loads become the main driver for ISO New England, PJM and NYISO. Generator maintenance will no longer be a major factor in June. The power generation maintenance season will largely be completed by the end of May, and outage levels will be minimal throughout the summer. Significant transmission work continues in ISO New England, PJM and NYISO.

Increased Electricity Demand in PJM, NYISO & ISO-New England | Congestion Watch Blog

April 12, 2021

Planned generator maintenance across the Northeast region will wind down during May and will largely be completed by the end of the month. Outage-driven congestion will shift to load-driven congestion as higher daytime temperatures increase electricity demand in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England. All three Northeast ISOs have scheduled significant transmission work throughout May. In New England, longer-term transmission outages will increase congestion in NEMA, RI, and SEMA.

Energy Demand in NYISO, PJM, & ISO-New England and How They Impact Wholesale Electricity Prices | Energy Watch Blog

April 5, 2021

Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.

PJM BRA 2022/23, ISO-NE FCA 16 Forecast and NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

April 2, 2021

Our Q1 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England and NYISO Capacity prices. For ISO New England, we review the results for the Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) recently conducted by ISO New England. In PJM, parameters have been released for the 2022/23 BRA, scheduled for May 2021. With a lower forecasted peak load, auction clearing prices are expected to decline in all PJM locations. In New York, the 2021 Summer Capability Period will begin in May.

Feb Power Prices Surged, March Equinox Moderates Demand & RGGI Auction No. 51 update

March 22, 2021

In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO. Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.

Power Generation Outages Peaking in April | Congestion Watch Blog

March 19, 2021

Generator outages during the spring maintenance season will peak in April across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England, impacting overall congestion patterns and increasing the risk of elevated congestion in load pockets. However, as warmer than normal weather expectations combine with ongoing COVID-19-related demand impacts to moderate electricity demand in April, lower loads will partly offset the impact of planned generator maintenance.

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for the 4th Quarter of 2020

December 31, 2020

Macro Trends in Renewable Energy | Energy Watch Blog

December 23, 2020

In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.