PJM Interconnection (PJM)

PJM Interconnection LLC (PJM) is a regional transmission organization (RTO) serving all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Started in 1927, this energy pool was renamed the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) in 1956. PJM is headquartered in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.

ESAI’s PJM Coverage includes Capacity, RECs, Power, Natural Gas, Carbon, Transmission and Congestion markets

ESAI provides fundamental-based outlooks for generation owners, investors, developers, and energy traders. Subscribers receive market updates on important market events including Capacity auctions, RGGI auctions, new Emissions and Renewables legislations, plus complete PJM long-term price forecasts for Power, NatGas, Capacity, RECs, and Emissions prices.

ESAI Power’s market insights enable subscribers to:

Make critical investment and trading decisions.
Conduct effective energy asset revenue and gross margin analysis.
Validate Asset valuation models and projections.
Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasts.
Understand and manage market and regulatory risks.
Test analytical models.
Compare industry standard Capacity, Carbon, RECs, Energy & NatGas price forecast benchmarks.

In addition to PJM, ESAI Power monitors ISO-NE, NYISO and MISO.

Request our PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Request a report detailing ESAI Power’s Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecast for PJM’s Base Residual Auctions (BRA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions. This report compares ESAI’s pre-auction forecast with actual BRA results across defined locational deliverability areas (LDA) for the past seven PJM Base Residual Auctions.

ESAI Power continuously monitors and conducts analyses the capacity markets in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO. Capacity market projections incorporate detailed assessments of market rule changes, market drivers including load projections, demand curve parameters, new capacity and retirements, and transmission constraints that impact locational delivery and pricing.

PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Read Our PJM Blog Posts

PJM Energy Market Outlook | Energy Watch Blog

January 14, 2025

ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch PJM market update includes our current 10-year forecast for power and natural gas prices across PJM. This update is based on ESAI’s fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. ESAI Power’s latest PJM Energy Watch report includes both our detailed Near-Term and Long-Term outlooks.

PJM’s Updated Capacity Auction Schedule | Capacity Watch Blog

November 20, 2024

PJM recently updated its Capacity Auction schedule for the 2026/27 Base Residual Auction. The auction was set to begin in early December 2024 but has now been delayed and is scheduled to take place in early July 2024. PJM is now scheduled to open the offer window for the 2026/27 BRA on July 9th, 2025 for market participants. The Capacity auction window will close on July 16th, and PJM plans to post the auction results on July 22nd.

PJM Generation Asset Monitor Update | Capacity News

September 9, 2024

The 2026/27 PJM RPM Base Residual Auction is scheduled for early December. Ethan Howland reports in today's Utility Dive that according to Morgan Stanley and ESAI Power's Scott Niemann, PJM capacity auction prices could plausibly clear at the price cap. Whilst clearing at the cap is a "very plausible" outcome, there are scenarios where pricing clears at "substantially" lower prices.

PJM Capacity Price Forecast Update BRA 2026/27 | Utility Dive | Capacity News

August 29, 2024

PJM Capacity Forecast BRA 2025/26 | Capacity Watch

June 30, 2024

We will soon publish our Capacity Watch for PJM report, which provides a comprehensive analysis of market drivers and recent developments, including Market Rules Changes for Capacity Accreditation (ELCC & CIFP), Increased Demand Forecast for Data Centers & AI and Retirement Drivers: At-risk assets driven by coal ash rules.

PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

February 20, 2024

ESAI Power's latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.

PJM Set To Hold Capacity Auction In June After Receiving Mixed FERC Decisions | Capacity News

February 12, 2024

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that after receiving two key Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decisions, the PJM Interconnection plans to hold its next capacity auction in June. Our Scott Niemann, Managing Director & Principal, said the FERC-approved changes will likely put upward pressure on capacity prices in most parts of PJM. Driven by pending power plant retirements, prices in PJM’s Southwest MAAC zone could break higher than the overall regional transmission organization.

PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

November 21, 2023

Power Generator owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the PJM, MISO, ISO-NE and NYISO Capacity Markets. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March, 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.”

Will Virginia leave RGGI? | Emissions News

August 31, 2023

At the end of July, regulations were published to withdraw Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The regulation, which was to take effect on August 30, 2023, requires that Virginia withdraw from the RGGI program at the end of this year. As expected, a legal challenge was filed immediately by the SELC.

PJM Interconnection Process Update | Generation Asset Monitor Blog

July 24, 2023

Earlier this month, PJM issued an update on its new process for studying New Service Requests from generators seeking Interconnection Service Agreements (ISAs) or Wholesale Market Participant Agreements (WMPAs). This new process was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 29, 2022, and was implemented to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs.

FERC Approved PJM Queue Reform Proposal | Renewables Watch Blog

February 2, 2023

FERC Approved PJM’s Queue Reform Proposal. These reforms are intended to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs. With this approval, PJM will process New Service Requests under a “first-ready, first-served” approach going forward rather than its current “first-come, first-served” approach.

EPA Proposes Tightening Fine Particulate Matter Standard, Potentially Affecting Coal Power Plants | Emissions News

January 6, 2023

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that in a move that could add to regulatory requirements for coal-fired power plants, the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday proposed tightening the primary annual air quality standard for fine particulate matter, called PM 2.5, to a range of 9 micrograms per cubic meter to 10 µg/m3 from 12 µg/m3. Coal plants owners in nonattaintment areas for a revised standard will have to meet requirements outlined in any approved state plans for meeting the federal PM 2.5 limit, according to Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power manager of renewables and emissions.

PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

October 18, 2022

For Energy Investors and Generation Owners investing and trading in PJM, it’s vital to have an in-depth market model with deep analysis of the market fundamentals, the latest regulatory updates, and insight into the rule changes and planning parameters that impact PJM BRA clearing prices moving forward. Surface level analysis is not enough when it comes to making investment decisions in the PJM Capacity Market. The PJM BRA for 2024/25 Delivery year is set to begin December 7th, 2022

Renewable Energy PPA Trends & Outlook | Renewables Watch Blog

October 5, 2022

Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market's resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.

Renewable Energy Development Challenges | Renewables Watch Blog

July 19, 2022

Supreme Court’s EPA Decision to Impact Coal Plant Retirements | Emissions News

July 12, 2022

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection's footprint this month, according to the grid operator's generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power's Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by "end of life" plant issues.

PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

May 13, 2022

ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24. Our PJM analysis this quarter includes ESAI’s forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24 and reflects upon MOPR, MSOC, ELCC and VRR Curves.

Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

March 23, 2022

Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

Coal Plant Owners Seek to Shut 3.2 GW in PJM in Face of Economic, Regulatory and Market Pressures | Emissions News

March 22, 2022

EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

March 1, 2022

Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.

Regulations Affecting Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) Under EPA Rules | Energy Watch Blog

February 24, 2022

ESAI Power's latest issue of EnergyWatch™ discusses regulations affecting coal combustion residuals (CCR) under EPA rules for wastewater discharge and CCR disposal and handling. Several coal-fired plants in PJM have announced retirement plans or are at-risk of retirement due to compliance requirements with these rules. Clients of our Energy Watch service received an accompanying spreadsheet with data about the affected plants. Also included are ESAI's Power and Natural Gas forward pricing forecasts in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE.

FERC Orders PJM To Change Reserve Market Rules, Delay Capacity Auctions | Capacity News

December 23, 2021

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Wednesday ordered the PJM Interconnection to revise its reserve market rules, which will delay the grid operator's upcoming capacity auction. This was a reverse of an earlier decision. In a 3-1 vote, FERC reaffirmed its previous decision to direct PJM to consolidate tier one and tier two reserve products, but said it had erred by approving changes to the grid operator's operating reserve demand curves (ORDC), which help set the price for reserves. Our Scott Niemann, Director and Principal of ESAI Power said, “This rule change seems like a small detail, but the ripple impacts may be more significant and touch a lot of aspects of the PJM market."

A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

December 20, 2021

High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

November 23, 2021

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC's revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC's failure to reach a majority decision on PJM's proposed MOPR revisions.

Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

November 9, 2021

The start of winter signals the end of generator maintenance season and a shift away from supply-stack driven congestion towards load and transmission driven congestion. Certain load pocket zones across the Northeast are susceptible to import constraints leading to elevated congestion risk and higher power prices. ESAI expects high natural gas prices to play a key role in December congestion patterns.

Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

October 20, 2021

The upcoming winter's natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power's outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.

PJM Renewable Capacity Pricing | Renewables Watch Blog

September 9, 2021

September Congestion update PJM NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

August 23, 2021

Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.

Stepping Stones to FCA16 and Beyond | Capacity Watch Blog

August 12, 2021

In this blog, we highlight a portion of the analysis in the NYISO section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. Changes to the New York markets' supply and demand levels and declining peak load forecasts have sent capacity prices in all directions. New York's commitment to renewable development has increased considerably in the past year with the approval of CLCPA's minimum statewide goal of 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035. The upward trajectory of renewables has also shaped LCR and IRM expectations.

ESAI Power Launches Renewables Watch for NYISO, ISO-NE & PJM Wholesale Power Markets | Press Release

August 4, 2021

Today, ESAI Power, a market research and consulting firm, announced the immediate availability of its Renewables WatchTM Service which provides Class I REC (Renewable Energy Certificates) Price outlooks to 2030 for the ISO-NE & PJM power generation and transmission systems and the Supply & Demand Balance forecasts for the NYISO power generation and transmission system.

Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

July 20, 2021

Our Q2 issue of Energy WatchTM came out this week. In our Q2 Energy WatchTM report ESAI Power provides an update on the Seasonal NOx regulations under the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the expected impact on allowance prices, Northeast power plant emissions, and wholesale power prices. For each ISO, ESAI Power provides an overview of projected net energy revenue expectations for key generation technologies.

How Low Can PJM Capacity Prices Go? | Capacity Watch Blog

July 15, 2021

Our Q2 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO Capacity prices. In this blog, we will highlight a portion of the analysis in the PJM section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. PJM's recent release of the 2022/23 Base Residual Auction clearing prices surprised many market participants with prices well below expectations. Prices in each LDA cleared significantly lower than historical auctions, and in particular, the 2021/22 BRA.

Transmission Outages in ISO-NE Will Elevate Congestion Potential in NEMA, SEMA & CT | Congestion Watch Blog

July 14, 2021

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

July 8, 2021

Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

Power Forwards in PJM Trend Higher, RGGI CO2 Allowances Increase | Energy Watch Blog

June 21, 2021

June has brought about high temperatures and strong electricity demand to the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE power markets with elevated prices. Northeast power futures reacted quickly and are trading significantly higher. Despite this rally in prices, ESAI's gas outlook is stable and believes the futures are overvalued. In this blog, we’ll provide a brief update on each of the ISO’s and an update on the RGGI Quarterly Auction (Auction 52).

Elevated Load Levels Culprit for Congestion in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

June 16, 2021

Temperatures across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England are expected to heat up and be the primary driver for congestion in July. Summer heat and potential re-distribution of the load profile due to individuals returning to work will keep eyes focused on demand fluctuations through the month. ESAI Power predicts very minimal generator or nuclear reactor outages in July, ultimately supporting the emphasis on demand levels.

PJM Power Prices Likely To Heat Up This Summer | Energy Watch Blog

May 20, 2021

ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.

Higher Loads and Hotter Temps Drive Increased Electricity Demand in ISO New England, PJM & NYISO | Congestion Watch Blog

May 10, 2021

Electricity demand will increase in June as temperatures rise and higher loads become the main driver for ISO New England, PJM and NYISO. Generator maintenance will no longer be a major factor in June. The power generation maintenance season will largely be completed by the end of May, and outage levels will be minimal throughout the summer. Significant transmission work continues in ISO New England, PJM and NYISO.

Increased Electricity Demand in PJM, NYISO & ISO-New England | Congestion Watch Blog

April 12, 2021

Planned generator maintenance across the Northeast region will wind down during May and will largely be completed by the end of the month. Outage-driven congestion will shift to load-driven congestion as higher daytime temperatures increase electricity demand in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England. All three Northeast ISOs have scheduled significant transmission work throughout May. In New England, longer-term transmission outages will increase congestion in NEMA, RI, and SEMA.

Energy Demand in NYISO, PJM, & ISO-New England and How They Impact Wholesale Electricity Prices | Energy Watch Blog

April 5, 2021

Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.

PJM BRA 2022/23, ISO-NE FCA 16 Forecast and NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

April 2, 2021

Our Q1 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England and NYISO Capacity prices. For ISO New England, we review the results for the Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) recently conducted by ISO New England. In PJM, parameters have been released for the 2022/23 BRA, scheduled for May 2021. With a lower forecasted peak load, auction clearing prices are expected to decline in all PJM locations. In New York, the 2021 Summer Capability Period will begin in May.

Feb Power Prices Surged, March Equinox Moderates Demand & RGGI Auction No. 51 update

March 22, 2021

In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO. Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.

Power Generation Outages Peaking in April | Congestion Watch Blog

March 19, 2021

Generator outages during the spring maintenance season will peak in April across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England, impacting overall congestion patterns and increasing the risk of elevated congestion in load pockets. However, as warmer than normal weather expectations combine with ongoing COVID-19-related demand impacts to moderate electricity demand in April, lower loads will partly offset the impact of planned generator maintenance.

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for the 4th Quarter of 2020

December 31, 2020

Macro Trends in Renewable Energy | Energy Watch Blog

December 23, 2020

In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.

Capacity Watch Report Released for September 2020

September 23, 2020

PJM Interconnection (PJM)

ESAI’s PJM Coverage includes Capacity, RECs, Power, Natural Gas, Carbon, Transmission and Congestion markets

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