Energy Watch

Our Energy Watch Publication

ESAI Power publishes Energy Watch^TM to help investors, generation owners, developers, utilities, regulators, and energy buyers understand the micro/macro trends that impact energy prices. ESAI produces 10-year power price forecasts for major price hubs and zones within the three Northeast power markets using security-constrained dispatch modeling.

We deliver an ongoing analysis of both North American and Northeast regional natural gas markets. Gas price forecasts and market commentary are included in the Energy Watch^TM quarterly and monthly publications. ESAI Power provides basis forecasts for most Northeast delivered gas pricing points, including Tetco M3, Transco Zone 6 New York, and Algonquin City Gate. We track pipeline and gas infrastructure projects and analyze changes in pipeline system constraints that can impact regional basis spreads.

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Read Our Latest Energy Watch Blog Posts

PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

February 20, 2024

ESAI Power's latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.

RGGI Auction 62 Clears at CCR Trigger of $14.88 | Emissions Watch Blog

December 8, 2023

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 62) was held on December 6, 2023. The clearing price was $14.88/ton, 7.4 percent higher than the clearing price of $13.85/ton on September 6, 2023 (see Figure 1). Auction 62 represents the third consecutive auction with increasing clearing prices, which follows three prior consecutive auctions with decreasing clearing prices.

PM2.5 and NAAQS Update | Emissions Watch Blog

February 15, 2023

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a proposed rule to strengthen the primary (health-based) annual National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particle pollution, PM2.5. Specifically, the EPA is proposing to revise the primary annual standard from 12.0 µg/m3 to a value within the range of 9.0 and 10.0 µg/m3.

Are Power Forwards Overvalued for Summer 2022? | Energy Watch Blog

May 11, 2022

Power forward contracts for this summer are trading north of $100/MWh in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Implied forward spark spreads – an indicator of the profitability of gas-fired power plants – have exploded, greatly exceeding anything that has historically been realized in the power markets.

EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

March 1, 2022

Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.

Regulations Affecting Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) Under EPA Rules | Energy Watch Blog

February 24, 2022

ESAI Power's latest issue of EnergyWatch™ discusses regulations affecting coal combustion residuals (CCR) under EPA rules for wastewater discharge and CCR disposal and handling. Several coal-fired plants in PJM have announced retirement plans or are at-risk of retirement due to compliance requirements with these rules. Clients of our Energy Watch service received an accompanying spreadsheet with data about the affected plants. Also included are ESAI's Power and Natural Gas forward pricing forecasts in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE.

Record LNG Exports Drive Domestic Demand | Natural Gas Watch Blog

January 5, 2022

In just 15 years, the U.S. has gone from a net importer of LNG to becoming the world’s largest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exporter in 2022. The U.S. will surpass Qatar and Australia with an estimated 14 Bcf/day in exports by the end of 2022, up from 10 Bcf/d of export capability with the completion of the first wave of export facilities in mid-2021. LNG exports continue to be the most significant driver of U.S. natural gas demand.

Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

October 20, 2021

The upcoming winter's natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power's outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.

Offshore Wind is Blowing Through NYISO | Energy Watch Blog

August 4, 2021

This blog looks into the impact that offshore wind development in NYISO has on gas-fired generation facilities and their net energy revenues. The recent approval of CLCPA’s minimum statewide offshore wind goal and NYSERDA’s authority to procure offshore renewable energy credits (ORECs) puts renewables at the forefront of NYISOs market development. The Boardwalk Offshore Wind and Beacon Offshore Wind Project that were recently awarded OREC contracts are just the start of the lofty 9 GW offshore wind target.

Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

July 20, 2021

Our Q2 issue of Energy WatchTM came out this week. In our Q2 Energy WatchTM report ESAI Power provides an update on the Seasonal NOx regulations under the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the expected impact on allowance prices, Northeast power plant emissions, and wholesale power prices. For each ISO, ESAI Power provides an overview of projected net energy revenue expectations for key generation technologies.

Power Forwards in PJM Trend Higher, RGGI CO2 Allowances Increase | Energy Watch Blog

June 21, 2021

June has brought about high temperatures and strong electricity demand to the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE power markets with elevated prices. Northeast power futures reacted quickly and are trading significantly higher. Despite this rally in prices, ESAI's gas outlook is stable and believes the futures are overvalued. In this blog, we’ll provide a brief update on each of the ISO’s and an update on the RGGI Quarterly Auction (Auction 52).

PJM Power Prices Likely To Heat Up This Summer | Energy Watch Blog

May 20, 2021

ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.

Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q1 2021

April 6, 2021

In this report, we cover load developments and their impact on wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM, and ISO-New England. In most areas of New York, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. PJM’s 2021 Load Report projects energy demand for 2021 to be 1.2 percent lower than in the 2020 Load Report. In New England, higher projected energy efficiency and distributed solar growth are expected to offset increases in demand from electric vehicles and space heating.

Energy Demand in NYISO, PJM, & ISO-New England and How They Impact Wholesale Electricity Prices | Energy Watch Blog

April 5, 2021

Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.

Northeast Energy Watch Monthly™ Report for March, 2021 | Energy Watch Blog

March 22, 2021

This monthly issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Watch MonthlyTM provides a summary of the February prices surging in the Northeast Electricity prices. As Spring approaches, milder weather will moderate electricity demand, gas prices and power prices across the Northeast.

Feb Power Prices Surged, March Equinox Moderates Demand & RGGI Auction No. 51 update

March 22, 2021

In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO. Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.

Macro Trends in Renewable Energy | Energy Watch Blog

December 23, 2020

In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.

Northeast Energy Watch Monthly Report Released for October 2020

October 23, 2020

Northeast Energy Watch Monthly™ Report for April 2020

May 14, 2020

This monthly issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Watch MonthlyTM follows our recent quarterly edition of Energy Watch which provided estimates of potential demand impacts from COVID-19 restrictions. This issue, also made available to all of our quarterly Energy Watch recipients, provides several scenarios bracketing the range of outcomes for power and gas supply, demand and pricing. Feel free to contact ESAI Power for more descriptions of the analyses presented and the underlying assumptions.

Northeast Energy Watch™ Quarterly Published for the 3rd Quarter of 2019

October 29, 2019

ESAI Power LLC Announces Publication of 2018 Q1 Northeast Energy Watch Quarterly™ | Energy Watch Blog

April 10, 2018

ESAI Power LLC is pleased to announce the publication of our 1st quarter of 2018 Northeast EnergyWatch Quarterly™ publication. The issue addresses recent growth in natural gas production and expected costs of future supply. ESAI has revised its long-term natural gas price forecast down compared to previous recent quarterly projections.

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