PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2025 | Energy Watch Blog
ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch briefing provides subscribers with a full update PJM’s 2025 Load Report that was published a few weeks ago. Relative to PJM’s 2024 Load Forecast, the forecasts for Peak Load and Net Energy in PJM RTO are higher for all forecast years.
This year, PJM incorporated a significant load adjustment for increased data center demand, and a decrease in the electric vehicle (EV) demand. PJM has also increased the Winter Peak Load growth outlook.
ESAI’s latest Energy Watch briefing includes analysis of:
- PJM RTO Peak Load Forecast – including comparisons of Peak Load over the past five years.
- 2025 Key Assumptions – ESAI details the key components that make up the peak load outlook, and how they impact load [positive, negative, or neutral] moving forward.
- Implications for PJM’s Capacity Market – both in the upcoming capacity auction (BRA 2026/27) Capacity Prices and in the long term – implications for 2030/31 Capacity Prices.
- PJM RTO – Net Energy Forecast changes relative to the 2024 report, 15 year CAGR increase, and implied load factor increases for 2025.
- 2025 BTM Battery Storage Capacity Addition Assumptions – long-term projections and zonal variations.
- Transmission Solutions for Data Center Demand Growth.
- Peak Load and Net Energy Forecasts by Zone – including MAAC, EMAAC, SWMAAC, Dominion, Western PJM, and Comed.
ESAI also closely tracks the PJM Interconnection queue and upcoming power plant retirements in our Generation Asset Monitor report issued to subscribers every month.
ESAI Power continuously monitors and analyzes the Capacity, Power and natural gas markets in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE as well as the MISO Capacity Market. Our ongoing assessments include reviews of market conditions, granular forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy pricing, fuel input forecasts, policy changes, and how these may impact energy prices and spark spreads looking forward. To learn more about our coverage or request free trial access, please go to our Energy Watch product page.
Learn About Capacity Watch
Capacity WatchTM provides a quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s project database (Generation Asset MonitorTM) is updated and presented with each issue.
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Energy WatchTM is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report. Forecast data is provided in spreadsheet format, which includes monthly on-peak, off-peak, and 7×24 zonal power prices, along with delivered natural gas prices for most Northeast regional pricing points.
