PJM Energy Market Outlook | Energy Watch Blog

ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch PJM market update includes our current 10-year forecast for power and natural gas prices across PJM. This update is based on ESAI’s fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. The report includes both our detailed Near-Term and Long-Term outlooks.

ESAI’s PJM Energy Watch Near-Term update forecasts include the following:

  • Natural Gas prices for Henry Hub, TETCO M3, Dom South, Chicago CG and TZ6 NNY.
  • Hub On-Peak Power prices for NI Hub, AD Hub, Western Hub and East Hub.
  • Hub On-Peak Spark Spreads for NI, AD, WH and EH.
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ESAI’s Long-Term PJM Energy Market forecast [10-years] includes:

  • Hub On-Peak Power prices.
  • Long-term Gas Price forecast.
  • Hub On-Peak Spark Spreads.
  • Detailed Power Price forecasts for Western Hub, AD Hub, Eastern Hub and NI Hub.
  • Fully transparent PJM Power Price forecast Assumptions, including Demand assumptions, retirement assumptions, and planned transmission upgrades/additional import capability.

Note that ESAI also closely tracks developments in the PJM Capacity market, PJM Renewable energy sector, monitors the Emissions market, and our Generation Asset Monitor tracks the PJM Interconnection queue and forecasts upcoming power plant retirements in PJM.

ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. To become a client, click here.

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ESAI Power’s Energy research team continuously monitors the power and natural gas markets in PJM, New York, and New England, providing in-depth analysis of market conditions, energy pricing forecasts, fuel input trends, policy impacts, and generator spark spreads.

We help investors, private equity, lenders, investment banks and generation owners understand key trends shaping energy prices. Using security-constrained dispatch modeling, we deliver 10-year power price forecasts for major hubs and zones in the Northeast RTOs.

The Energy Watch publication includes natural gas price forecasts, market commentary, and basis forecasts for key Northeast pricing points like Tetco M3, Transco Zone 6 New York, and Algonquin City Gate. We also track pipeline developments and analyze system constraints affecting regional basis spreads.

Read Our Energy Watch Blog Posts

Energy Watch Blog

PJM Energy Market Outlook | Energy Watch Blog

ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch PJM market update includes our current 10-year forecast for power and natural gas prices across PJM.  This update is based on ESAI’s fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. ESAI Power’s latest PJM Energy Watch report includes both our detailed Near-Term and Long-Term outlooks. 
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PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

ESAI Power's latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.
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RGGI Auction 62 Clears at CCR Trigger of $14.88 | Emissions Watch Blog

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 62) was held on December 6, 2023. The clearing price was $14.88/ton, 7.4 percent higher than the clearing price of $13.85/ton on September 6, 2023 (see Figure 1). Auction 62 represents the third consecutive auction with increasing clearing prices, which follows three prior consecutive auctions with decreasing clearing prices.
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a proposed rule to strengthen the primary (health-based) annual National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particle pollution, PM2.5. Specifically, the EPA is proposing to revise the primary annual standard from 12.0 µg/m3 to a value within the range of 9.0 and 10.0 µg/m3.
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Are Power Forwards Overvalued for Summer 2022? | Energy Watch Blog

Power forward contracts for this summer are trading north of $100/MWh in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Implied forward spark spreads – an indicator of the profitability of gas-fired power plants – have exploded, greatly exceeding anything that has historically been realized in the power markets.
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EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.
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Regulations Affecting Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) Under EPA Rules | Energy Watch Blog

ESAI Power's latest issue of EnergyWatch™ discusses regulations affecting coal combustion residuals (CCR) under EPA rules for wastewater discharge and CCR disposal and handling. Several coal-fired plants in PJM have announced retirement plans or are at-risk of retirement due to compliance requirements with these rules. Clients of our Energy Watch service received an accompanying spreadsheet with data about the affected plants. Also included are ESAI's Power and Natural Gas forward pricing forecasts in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE.
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Record LNG Exports Drive Domestic Demand | Natural Gas Watch Blog

In just 15 years, the U.S. has gone from a net importer of LNG to becoming the world’s largest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exporter in 2022. The U.S. will surpass Qatar and Australia with an estimated 14 Bcf/day in exports by the end of 2022, up from 10 Bcf/d of export capability with the completion of the first wave of export facilities in mid-2021. LNG exports continue to be the most significant driver of U.S. natural gas demand.
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Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

The upcoming winter's natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power's outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.

Learn About Renewable Energy

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ESAI Power evaluates Renewable Energy issues, markets and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.

Learn About Energy Watch

Energy Watch

Energy WatchTM provides an analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each report.