ISO-New England FCA18 Expected Auction Dynamics & Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog
Parameters are set for the ISO-NE 18th Forward Capacity Auction [FCA18] is slated to open on February 5th for the procurement of capacity for the 2027/28 Capacity Commitment Period (CCP).
The FCA18 will be the second ISO-NE Capacity auction to include the transition provisions for the Minimum Offer Price Rule or MOPR. The MOPR floors remain in place, but with a renewables exemption.
FERC has accepted ISO-NE’s proposed Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) and related values for the FCA18. The auction will procure the capacity resources needed to meet New England’s projected demand for electricity from June 1, 2027 through May 31, 2028.
ISO-New England had submitted two documents for FERC’s review ahead of the Capacity Auction: 1) The Installed Capacity Requirement filing that describes the ICR and related values on the system including zonal demand curves used in the auction; and 2) Information Filing that included technical details on the auction, qualified capacity resources, and the capacity zones that will be modeled.
Moving forward, ISO-NE has proposed a one-year delay to FCA19, which had been scheduled for February, 2025. ISO-NE needs more time to complete an ongoing Resource Capacity Accreditation project to improve how they model the region’s energy supply needs. The discovery of a modeling issue has slowed the project’s completion, causing a delay in FCA19.
ESAI’s upcoming issue of Capacity Watch will include our long term Capacity Price forecast for FCA Clearing Prices out to 2035/36. Our FCA18 and Beyond coverage includes how the full set of MOPR Reforms will impact prices moving forward, Demand Growth forecast, Projected Capacity Surplus, and as always clear and transparent assumptions for our base case forecast.
ESAI’s updated forecast, reflecting the ISO-NE FCA18 Auction parameters and rule changes, will be discussed in the upcoming issue of Capacity Watch. For more information about our Capacity Forecasts, see our Capacity Market Coverage. To request trial access to ESAI Power’s Benchmark Energy Research Service fill out this form free trial form
Our MISO Capacity Market Service
Our MISO Capacity Market Service provides an in-depth 10-year supply and demand forecast on the MISO Capacity market. Every quarter, ESAI provides updates on supply & demand fundamentals, market rule developments, & policy changes that impact MISO capacity market outcomes. This service includes: a) Briefing and analysis on the most recent PRA results; b) Quarterly MISO PRA long-term forecast; c) Overview of FERC filings and rule changes and stakeholder discussions.
Learn About Renewable Energy
ESAI Power evaluates the Renewable Energy issues, markets, and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.
Learn About Capacity Watch
Capacity WatchTM – Provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, New York, and New England. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s project database (Generation Asset MonitorTM) is updated and presented with each issue.
