Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

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Coal Plant Owners Seek to Shut 3.2 GW in PJM in Face of Economic, Regulatory and Market Pressures | Emissions News

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Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection’s footprint this month, according to the grid operator’s generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power’s Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by “end of life” plant issues.

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EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

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Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.

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Regulations Affecting Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) Under EPA Rules | Energy Watch Blog

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ESAI Power’s latest issue of EnergyWatch™ discusses regulations affecting coal combustion residuals (CCR) under EPA rules for wastewater discharge and CCR disposal and handling. Several coal-fired plants in PJM have announced retirement plans or are at-risk of retirement due to compliance requirements with these rules. Clients of our Energy Watch service received an accompanying spreadsheet with data about the affected plants. Also included are ESAI’s Power and Natural Gas forward pricing forecasts in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE.

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ISO-NE FCA16 Auction Parameters and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-New England Forward Capacity Auction, FCA16. Clearing Prices are expected to decline from the FCA15 Auction due to a decrease in Net Installed Capacity Requirements (Net ICR) and Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE).

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Record LNG Exports Drive Domestic Demand | Natural Gas Watch Blog

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In just 15 years, the U.S. has gone from a net importer of LNG to becoming the world’s largest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exporter in 2022. The U.S. will surpass Qatar and Australia with an estimated 14 Bcf/day in exports by the end of 2022, up from 10 Bcf/d of export capability with the completion of the first wave of export facilities in mid-2021. LNG exports continue to be the most significant driver of U.S. natural gas demand.

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FERC Orders PJM To Change Reserve Market Rules, Delay Capacity Auctions | Capacity News

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Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Wednesday ordered the PJM Interconnection to revise its reserve market rules, which will delay the grid operator’s upcoming capacity auction. This was a reverse of an earlier decision. In a 3-1 vote, FERC reaffirmed its previous decision to direct PJM to consolidate tier one and tier two reserve products, but said it had erred by approving changes to the grid operator’s operating reserve demand curves (ORDC), which help set the price for reserves. Our Scott Niemann, Director and Principal of ESAI Power said, “This rule change seems like a small detail, but the ripple impacts may be more significant and touch a lot of aspects of the PJM market.”

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A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

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RGGI Auction 54 Update | Emissions Watch Blog

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The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 54) was held on December 1, 2021. The clearing price was $13.00/ton, nearly 40 percent higher than the clearing price of $9.30/ton on September 8, 2021 (see Figure 1). For the first time since September 2015, the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) was triggered which is a mechanism of the RGGI program that was implemented to provide additional allowances when auction prices exceed an established price ceiling.

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PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC’s revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC’s failure to reach a majority decision on PJM’s proposed MOPR revisions.

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