This monthly issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Watch MonthlyTM provides a summary of the February prices surging in the Northeast Electricity prices. As Spring approaches, milder weather will moderate electricity demand, gas prices and power prices across the Northeast.
In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO. Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.
Generator outages during the spring maintenance season will peak in April across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England, impacting overall congestion patterns and increasing the risk of elevated congestion in load pockets. However, as warmer than normal weather expectations combine with ongoing COVID-19-related demand impacts to moderate electricity demand in April, lower loads will partly offset the impact of planned generator maintenance.
In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.
The ambitious offshore wind goals of Eastern U.S. States will require significant investment in interconnecting transmission facilities. The transmission system in coastal areas along the Eastern Seaboard is not adequate to accommodate the ultimate build-out of offshore wind resources on the outer continental shelf. Recognizing that a planned and coordinated approach could yield efficiencies with regard to development costs and schedule, along with minimizing the environmental impact, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (NJBPU) is working with PJM to solicit a comprehensive transmission solution to interconnect 7,500 MW of offshore wind resources to the New Jersey transmission system by 2035. As a PJM first, the NJBPU will use PJM’s State Agreement Approach to study the first public policy transmission need (PPTN) in PJM, solicit proposed transmission solutions, evaluate received proposals, and potentially select transmission project(s) for implementation.
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ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.