PJM will open the auction window for the 2025/26 BRA on July 17, 2024. Changes in the peak load forecast and minimum Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) and retirements are expected to impact clearing prices in the auction. ESAI recently published our Capacity Watch for PJM forecast, providing subscribers with a comprehensive analysis of market drivers and recent developments, including:
- Market Rules Changes
- PJM BRA 2025/26 Auction Delay and CIFP Rule Reform Process
- Capacity Accreditation (ELCC & CIFP) and Reliability Modeling
- Net CONE values, VRR Curve and Forward-Looking E&AS offset
- Increased Demand Forecast for Data Centers and AI
- Retirement Drivers – At-risk assets driven by coal ash rules
ESAI’s Capacity forecast includes a long term outlook detailing prices for these LDAs – RTO, MAAC, EMAAC, SWMAAC, PSEG, PS-North, DPL-South, PEPCO, ATSI, ATSI-Cleveland, COMED, BGE, PPL, DAY, DEOK, and DOM. Subscribers will also receive our more detailed report describing the 2025/26 BRA forecast for each LDA, and our long-term supply and demand assumptions in PJM.
To learn more, visit:
About Us
ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. To become a client, click here.
Learn About Capacity
ESAI Power continuously monitors and conducts analysis of the Capacity Markets in New York, New England, PJM & MISO. Capacity market projections incorporate detailed assessments of all market drivers including load projections, demand curve parameters, new capacity and retirements, and transmission constraints that impact locational delivery and pricing. Coverage includes full pre- and post-Capacity Auction forecasts for NY ICAP Summer Strip and Winter Strip auctions, for each PJM Base Residual Auction, ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction, and MISO Planning Resource Auction.
Learn About Capacity Watch
Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s project database (Generation Asset MonitorTM) is updated and presented with each issue.
