Capacity Watch

Our Capacity Watch Publication

Capacity Watch^TM – Provides analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. Coverage includes:

An evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO via our Generation Asset Monitor monthly updates.
Pre & post Capacity auction briefings on PJM BRAs, ISO-NE FCAs, MISO PRAs with ongoing, in-depth NYISO Capacity market analysis.
Up to date 10-year Capacity Price forecast.

Quarterly Power Service subscribers can also gain access to ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor which provides a detailed evaluation of the outlook for the construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO.

Request a Capacity Watch Sample Report

ESAI helps investors & generation owners navigate the NYISO, PJM, ISO-NE & MISO Capacity markets.

Download Our Capacity Watch Brochure

Capacity Watch Brochure Graphic July 2024

Download our Capacity Watch^TM brochure to learn about how we report on capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes in the PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO power markets.

Read Our Capacity Watch Blog Posts

Read our Capacity Watch^TM blog posts to get the latest news about the capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes in the PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, & MISO power markets.

MISO Interconnection Queue Update I Generation Asset Monitor Blog

November 19, 2024

This update provides a high-level overview of our recently published MISO Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) report and database for November, 2024. The MISO GAM tracks the Interconnection queue in MISO for additions, forecasts plant retirements and plants deemed at risk of retirement, and provides an outlook for the timeline of renewable generation projects in MISO.

NYISO Capacity Price Forecast Winter 2024-25 | Capacity Watch Blog

September 27, 2024

The NYISO Winter Strip Auction window opened today, starting a series of critical events in the NYISO Winter Capability Period for 2024/25. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the state of New York’s energy needs, ensuring a reliable power supply during the colder months. This blog post will delve into some details of the NYISO Installed Capacity Market for the Winter 2024/25 season, shedding light on auction schedules, clearing price volatility, and notable changes compared to the previous winter.

MISO PRA Scheduled to Start March 26th | Capacity Watch Blog

March 20, 2024

ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our new Capacity coverage of MISO. ESAI also maintains a MISO Energy Asset Database (Delivered to subscribers in excel) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement.

PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

February 20, 2024

ESAI Power's latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.

ISO-NE FCA18 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

January 23, 2024

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze ISO-NE FCA18, Forward Capacity Auction. ESAI's coverage includes auction parameters, qualified capacity, and expected auction dynamics. These are all detailed in our Capacity Watch report.

ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

November 27, 2023

Generation owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the ISO-New England Capacity Market. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.” ESAI is now offering the opportunity to request our Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecasts for ISO New England's Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions.

PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

November 21, 2023

Power Generator owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the PJM, MISO, ISO-NE and NYISO Capacity Markets. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March, 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.”

NYISO Capacity Prices Volatile Heading into Winter 2023-24 | Capacity Watch Blog

October 9, 2023

As the days grow shorter and temperatures drop, the New York State energy market gears up for another winter season. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the state’s energy needs, ensuring a reliable power supply during the colder months. This blog post will delve into the critical details of the NYISO Installed Capacity Market for the Winter 2023/24 season, shedding light on auction schedules, clearing price volatility, and notable changes compared to the previous winter.

PJM Interconnection Process Update | Generation Asset Monitor Blog

July 24, 2023

Earlier this month, PJM issued an update on its new process for studying New Service Requests from generators seeking Interconnection Service Agreements (ISAs) or Wholesale Market Participant Agreements (WMPAs). This new process was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 29, 2022, and was implemented to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs.

NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

July 3, 2023

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch update, ESAI delivers our NYISO Capacity Market Forecast out to 2032/33 Capability Year.

ISO-NE FCA17 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

February 24, 2023

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-NE FCA17, Forward Capacity Auction. ESAI's coverage includes auction parameters, qualified capacity, and expected auction dynamics. These are all detailed in our Capacity Watch report.

MISO Capacity Price Forecast PRA 2023/24 | Capacity Watch Blog

November 2, 2022

PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

October 18, 2022

For Energy Investors and Generation Owners investing and trading in PJM, it’s vital to have an in-depth market model with deep analysis of the market fundamentals, the latest regulatory updates, and insight into the rule changes and planning parameters that impact PJM BRA clearing prices moving forward. Surface level analysis is not enough when it comes to making investment decisions in the PJM Capacity Market. The PJM BRA for 2024/25 Delivery year is set to begin December 7th, 2022

PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

May 13, 2022

ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24. Our PJM analysis this quarter includes ESAI’s forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24 and reflects upon MOPR, MSOC, ELCC and VRR Curves.

ISO-NE FCA16 Auction Parameters and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

January 14, 2022

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-New England Forward Capacity Auction, FCA16. Clearing Prices are expected to decline from the FCA15 Auction due to a decrease in Net Installed Capacity Requirements (Net ICR) and Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE).

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

November 23, 2021

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC's revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC's failure to reach a majority decision on PJM's proposed MOPR revisions.

Stepping Stones to FCA16 and Beyond | Capacity Watch Blog

August 12, 2021

In this blog, we highlight a portion of the analysis in the NYISO section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. Changes to the New York markets' supply and demand levels and declining peak load forecasts have sent capacity prices in all directions. New York's commitment to renewable development has increased considerably in the past year with the approval of CLCPA's minimum statewide goal of 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035. The upward trajectory of renewables has also shaped LCR and IRM expectations.

Renewable Expansion in NYISO | Capacity Watch Blog

July 27, 2021

How Low Can PJM Capacity Prices Go? | Capacity Watch Blog

July 15, 2021

Our Q2 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO Capacity prices. In this blog, we will highlight a portion of the analysis in the PJM section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. PJM's recent release of the 2022/23 Base Residual Auction clearing prices surprised many market participants with prices well below expectations. Prices in each LDA cleared significantly lower than historical auctions, and in particular, the 2021/22 BRA.

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

July 8, 2021

Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

PJM BRA 2022/23, ISO-NE FCA 16 Forecast and NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

April 2, 2021

Our Q1 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England and NYISO Capacity prices. For ISO New England, we review the results for the Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) recently conducted by ISO New England. In PJM, parameters have been released for the 2022/23 BRA, scheduled for May 2021. With a lower forecasted peak load, auction clearing prices are expected to decline in all PJM locations. In New York, the 2021 Summer Capability Period will begin in May.

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q1 2021

April 2, 2021

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for the 4th Quarter of 2020

December 31, 2020

ISO New England Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) | Capacity Watch Blog

December 31, 2020

Capacity Watch Report Released for September 2020

September 23, 2020

Capacity Watch™ Report Published for the 4th Quarter of 2019

November 19, 2019

ESAI Power LLC Announces Publication of 3rd Quarter of 2019 Capacity Watch™

August 16, 2019

This issue of Capacity WatchTM examines the development of the offshore wind industry in the Northeast and its potential impact on capacity markets. The New York section discusses the upcoming winter strip outlook and the impacts of the PJM Transmission Owners filing to increase PJM export tariffs for exports to New York. The PJM section examines the outlook for the next BRA and implications for the cancellation of the BRA that was scheduled for August and in New England, a significant drop in the Installed Capacity Requirement (1,260 MW) has shifted the outlook for FCA clearing prices lower. Please see the accompanying excerpt for review.

ESAI Power Announces Publication Capacity Watch™ 2018 Q2 | Capacity Watch Blog

April 28, 2018

This issue provides a detailed overview of expectations for the upcoming BRA for 2021/22. RTO and MAAC prices are expected to clear at $86.69/MW-day with EMAAC clearing at $150.69/MW-day and ComEd at $175. For New England, a detailed breakdown of the FCA12 results are provided as well as a discussion of the potential for fuel-based reliability payments for Mystic 8 and 9. Finally in New York, the final 2018 Gold Book load forecasts have been issued and are incorporated into the ESAI outlook. Please see the accompanying excerpt for review.

ESAI Power LLC Announces Publication of 2018 Q1 Capacity Watch™ | Capacity Watch Blog

January 31, 2018

ESAI Power LLC is pleased to announce the publication of our 1st quarter of 2018 Capacity Watch™ publication. The issue presents an overview of the penalties for delays or cancellations in delivery of new generation and the implications for capacity markets. The New England section discusses the CASPR capacity substitution rule and its potential impact on prices.

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Capacity Watch

Our Capacity Watch Publication

Request a Capacity Watch Sample Report

ESAI helps investors & generation owners navigate the NYISO, PJM, ISO-NE & MISO Capacity markets.

Download Our Capacity Watch Brochure

Read Our Capacity Watch Blog Posts

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