High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across the Northeast. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for New York where temperatures will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

Here is a high level overview of each RTO for January:

• ISO-NE Update –  Congestion patterns will be heavily dictated by on-peak load levels. Short term transmission outages pose bullish risk to CT and NEMA and should be monitored at the beginning and end of January.
• PJM Update – A variety of factors will come into play for PJM’s congestion outlook in January. While on-peak load levels will be impactful in both PJM West and the Mid-Atlantic region, look for high Tetco M3 natural gas prices and fuel oil prices in the Mid-Atlantic region to drive potential volatility among coal-fired generation and trigger congestion through January. Western PJM is exposed to upside risk from transmission outages in ATSI and COMED and any forced outages that will impact import-constrained areas.
• NYISO Update – forecasted to see warmer-than-normal temperatures that will reduce demand-driven congestion risk in the New York ISO. A slew of transmission outages elevate risks for multiple interfaces and lines to bind and trigger price separation in the Lower Hudson Valley region and Zone A. Keep an eye on the high TZ6 NY gas prices this January

Subscribers: Find out more about congestion drivers, detailed outage information and congestion analysis for January, 2022 and an update on the FTR auction in our recent issue of Congestion Watch.